Seasonal Trading· 5 min read

How to Screen Stocks for Seasonal Patterns

Discover high-probability seasonal setups with seasonaledge.app

Every year, certain stocks, indices, and futures tend to move in the same direction at the same time. These are seasonal patterns — recurring price tendencies backed by decades of data.

Most traders either don't know these patterns exist. This guide walks through how to systematically screen for seasonal patterns across 4,000+ securities — the same approach built into the Seasonal Edge screener.

Seasonal Edge screener showing 423 long setups entering within 30 days, ranked by efficiency and win rate. Results include LMT, DHL.DE, NOC, and other securities with 90-100% win rates.
The screener ranked by efficiency — 423 long setups entering within 30 days, filtered to 90%+ win rates.

The Metric That Actually Matters

Every pattern in Seasonal Edge has an equity curve — a chart that shows what would have happened if you traded the pattern every single year. Each year's result stacks on top of the last, so you can see at a glance whether a pattern has been compounding gains or giving them back.

The problem is that seasonal patterns are cyclical and go through hot and cold streaks. We run cycle detection on the equity curve to classify each pattern as HOT (recent wins, uptrending equity curve), COLD (recent losses, downtrending), or NEUTRAL. A pattern with an 80% historical win rate might be in a cold regime right now — and you'd never know from the win rate alone.

Equity Curve Regime

HOT— the pattern has been winning recently and the equity curve is trending up. These are the setups to prioritize.
COLD— recent losses, downtrending equity curve. Avoid or sit out until the regime shifts.
NEUTRAL— mixed results, no clear trend either way.

The seasonal pattern is the setup. The equity curve regime tells you when to use it and when to avoid it. This is the difference between Seasonal Edge and conventional seasonality tools — we don't just find patterns, we tell you which ones are working right now.

Equity curve with regime cycle detection — orange cycle overlay shows HOT and COLD phases. Green dots indicate winning trades, red dots indicate losing trades. The cycle forecast shows 44% HOT and 33% COLD over next 99 trades.
Equity curve with cycle regime overlay — green dots are wins, red are losses. The orange cycle identifies HOT and COLD phases.
Trade filter comparison showing three equity curves from $1,000 starting capital: All trades ends at $803, Williams A/D filtered ends at $1,075, and EC HOT only ends at $3,444. EC HOT achieves 71.3% win rate and +128.78% total return versus 51.3% and -8.78% for unfiltered.
Same pattern, three filters: unfiltered ($803), Williams A/D ($1,075), EC HOT only ($3,444). The regime filter turns a losing strategy into +128% return.

Beyond that, the screener also shows:

Win Rate

How often the pattern was profitable. 80% over 25 years = 20 out of 25 wins.

Efficiency

Average daily return. 3% in 5 days beats 10% in 100 days — less capital tied up, more opportunities.

Williams A/D

Institutional buying vs. selling pressure. A bullish signal on a long pattern means money flow supports the trade.

Take-Profit & Stop-Loss

Avg win and avg loss give you data-driven take-profit and stop-loss targets for every pattern.

Real Example: DHL.DE — 10 Trades, 10 Winners

The screener flags DHL.DE (Deutsche Post AG) with a long pattern entering around April 8, exiting around May 4. Here's the full history:

DHL.DE seasonal trend chart showing the April 8 to May 4 long pattern with 100% win rate, 13.9% max win, +3.7% average return, and HOT equity curve regime.
DHL.DE seasonal trend — 100% win rate, +3.7% avg return, max drawdown just 0.5%.
DHL.DE trade history table showing 10 consecutive winning trades from 2016 to 2025, with returns ranging from +0.46% to +13.91%.
Year-by-year trade history — every single occurrence was profitable.

10 trades. 10 winners. 100% win rate.

Returns range from +0.46% (2019) to +13.91% (2025). The equity curve regime is hot. Williams A/D shows accumulation. You didn't need to know anything about Deutsche Post or German logistics — the data found it for you.

Why Spreadsheets Can't Do This

4,000 securities, each with dozens of potential patterns, across 25+ years of daily data. That's millions of data points to process, filter, and rank. A charting platform can show you one symbol at a time — but it can't screen, filter by momentum, or rank by composite score across all of them.

This screen runs daily. Every morning the data refreshes, new patterns enter the lookahead window, regimes update, and the ranked list reflects the current state of the market.

Beyond Seasonal Patterns

Seasonal screening is the starting point. The strongest setups combine seasonal tendencies with cycle-based timing — planetary harmonics, COR pivots, and cyclical overlays that confirm when conditions are most favorable. The difference between “this stock tends to rise in April” and “April 2026 specifically has favorable cycle alignment.”

Start Screening

4,000+ securities screened daily. 25+ years of data. Win rates, equity curves, and regime analysis on every pattern.

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